Winters in East Tennessee can bring sudden shifts, no matter the big-picture forecast. Winter Solstice is December 21, 2025, and the Spring Equinox is March 20, 2026, but forecasters use the months of December, January, and February to mark the season. So, here’s how the next season looks for East Tennessee.
The Big Picture for Winter 2025-2026
Climate patterns influence weather across the globe, and this winter, the Climate Prediction Center is monitoring La Niña conditions, with a shift back toward a more neutral pattern expected by the start of spring.
La Niña refers to cooler-than-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which triggers shifts in global weather patterns. During a typical La Niña winter in the U.S., the southern half of the country tends to experience drier conditions, while the northern half is generally wetter. Colder air often slides along and southeast of the Rocky Mountains, leaving a line of cooler, wetter weather to hover near and north of Tennessee. Tennessee sits right along the dividing line of these global weather impacts, which can lead to wide swings in temperatures and conditions throughout the season.
Keeping a typical La Niña pattern in mind, the Climate Prediction Center outlook for December through February shows a higher probability of above-average temperatures across much of the South. As usual, Tennessee sits right along the dividing line, with nearly equal chances of experiencing above or below-average temperatures. East Tennessee is included in the slight chance for above-average temperatures.
When you add precipitation into the mix, we’re likely to see a variety of impacts ranging from rain to sleet and snow. In the Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook, most of Tennessee hovers near average. The southernmost states are likely to experience below-average precipitation, while above-average precipitation is forecast to dip from the northwest into western Kentucky and West Tennessee.
What's Average for Winter in East Tennessee?
It’s important to keep in mind what is “normal” for East Tennessee this time of the year, especially given the region's varying terrain. McGhee Tyson Airport serves as the main observation site for the National Weather Service, providing daily readings that can be compared to more than 100 years of data. This helps establish a clearer picture of what’s typical for East Tennessee. For Knoxville, December averages a high of 51 degrees and a low of 33 degrees, with 5 inches of precipitation. January dips to an average high of 48 and low of 30 degrees, with 4.76 inches of precipitation. February climbs back up to an average high of 53 and a low of 33 degrees, with a few hundredths of an inch more precipitation than the previous month.
Precipitation includes everything from rain to sleet and snow. The seasonal average snowfall for Knoxville is 4.6 inches, measured at McGhee Tyson Airport.. According to public records from the National Weather Service,, the lower elevations in the Tennessee Valley range from 1 to 5 inches of average annual snowfall. The Cumberland Plateau averages 13 to 19 inches of snowfall each winter. In the hills, ridges, and mountains of Northeast Tennessee up to the Kentucky line, the average ranges from 5 to 10 inches of snow. Hike up the mountains at the Tennessee-North Carolina line, and that snowfall potential averages 50 to 80 inches each season.
Appalachian Winter Weather Folklore
There are some old sayings passed down for generations. You can be the judge of whether they’re accurate or a bit outdated. Some are certainly easier to track than others. The number of foggy days in August is said to predict the number of snowfalls for the upcoming winter season. The days with especially dense fog are supposed to signal how many of those “bigger” snows you might see in that area. Growing up in Knoxville, any time a few snowflakes fell from the sky, it counted as a snow, so this one is definitely subjective when it comes to how you add up the tally.
Woolly worms are always a popular topic of conversation. When you see people posting photos of caterpillars that are partly brown and partly black, it’s said to predict how intense the winter will be. If the black band in the middle covers most of the caterpillar, folklore suggests a harsher winter ahead. It’s worth noting, though, that solid black caterpillars are actually a different species, so don’t take that as a sign of an especially rough season.
Do you have persimmon trees nearby? If so, try cutting a few seeds open and see what they have to say. According to folklore, if the white pattern inside the seed looks like a spoon, you’d better get your snow shovels ready. If it’s shaped more like a knife, that points to a “cutting” cold season. And if you spot a fork, it signals a milder winter — meaning the farmers can grab their pitchforks a little earlier. Several Tennessee state parks get in on this one and will share their results each year. On their Facebook pages, Fort Loudoun State Historic Park in Vonore and Warriors Path State Park in Kingsport both posted seeds that look like spoons ahead of this upcoming winter.
Forecast Versus a Trend
With these big-picture outlooks, it’s important to remember that even in a warmer-than-normal winter, there can still be periods of very cold or snowy weather. Keep in mind the region’s varied terrain, including the hills and ridges around the Valley, since conditions can change quickly from one location to another.
Weather refers to short-term conditions, while climate reflects average weather patterns over a longer period. So, keep an eye on the daily forecast, and remember these long-term trends as we head into the upcoming winter.
